Sustaining Strong Communities on Maryland’s Eastern Shore – Facing the Climate Change Present

Rising seas and increasingly extreme weather patterns pose an urgent threat to many Eastern Shore communities. An effective response must be both swift and thoughtful.

Twelve communities on the Eastern Shore—more than in any other state except Louisiana—currently face frequent, severe flooding attributable to climate change, according to a 2017 Union of Concerned Scientists analysis.[i] At least 10 percent of the land area in these communities (not including wetlands) is flooded more than 25 times per year. Flooding of this frequency and severity is forcing rapid economic changes and affecting basic infrastructure like plumbing.[ii] The present-day impacts of climate change on the Eastern Shore pose the greatest threats to children, aging adults, low-income families, and people of color who in too many cases lack the necessary resources to adjust easily.

Of the 8,300 residents of the Somerset and Dorchester County communities experiencing the most severe flooding today, 26 percent are at least 65 years old and 21 percent are children under 18.[iii] One out of four affected residents has a family income below the federal poverty line, including nearly half of children in these communities. While the share of people of color living in affected communities is similar to the Eastern Shore overall, 38 percent of people of color who live in these areas have low incomes.

The combined effects of rising seas and sinking land on the Eastern Shore are expected to both spread and intensify coastal flooding in the coming decades. By 2035, an additional nine Eastern Shore communities are projected to face severe flooding at least once every two weeks, bringing the affected population to more than 15,000, using today’s population numbers.

Both the coastal flooding affecting the region today and the wider range of impacts expected in future years threaten industries that are central to the Eastern Shore economy:[iv]

• Agriculture: As sea level rise increases flooding in rivers and other inland bodies of water, saltwater can make its way into farmland, making soil less hospitable to economically important crops. Changes in precipitation in either direction can affect crop yields and shift agricultural calendars.
• Seafood: Rising sea levels and water temperatures, as well as changes in water chemistry, pose an array of threats to the Eastern Shore’s seafood industry. Examples include the loss of habitats like coastal marshes and eelgrass that sustain fish and crabs’ food sources, and increasing ocean acidity making shellfish more vulnerable.
• Tourism: Coastal erosion is expected to erode or even destroy many sand beaches, costing communities an important income source. More severe storms threaten structures along the coast, which can result in extensive property damage, such as in 2003 when Hurricane Isabel caused $400 million in damage on both sides of the Chesapeake. Even when this threat does not materialize, the mere possibility is likely to make flood and other types of property insurance both cost more and cover less.

Climate change also increases public health risks on the Eastern Shore. Extreme summertime heat is likely to become more frequent across Maryland, and the Shore’s above-average population of aging adults faces particular dangers from high temperatures. More severe health problems are possible in the event of climate-linked displacement, either gradually as frequently flooded communities become uninhabitable or rapidly if an especially severe storm strikes. For example, Louisiana residents who had to leave their homes because of Hurricane Katrina faced a range of barriers to accessing health care.[v] Some people who lost their jobs, either because their employers closed or because they weren’t able to show up to work, also lost employer-provided health insurance. Some people who did not evacuate still had health insurance, but were unable to see a doctor because of the loss of providers and hospital beds in the New Orleans metro area. There was a spike in the number of children who missed doses of prescription drugs because they were unable to get needed medication, sending some to the hospital for conditions such as asthma.

Policy Solutions

Maryland is currently pursuing several strategies to shift the state’s economy away from fossil fuels and update infrastructure to withstand flooding and extreme weather. While many of these strategies are promising, the urgency of the climate change threat requires an equally urgent response. The state should continue, strengthen, and intensify the approaches currently in place.

Shifting to a Sustainable Economy

While reducing emissions will not eliminate the climate impacts the region is already experiencing, steep reductions in global emissions are necessary to prevent the worst future impacts.

• Set aggressive energy transition goals. The state is currently developing a plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 40 percent below 2006 levels by 2030, as called for under the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Act of 2016.[vi] Components of the plan are likely to include increasing renewable energy generation and increasing the state’s use of zero-emission vehicles.[vii] The state should adopt ambitious goals for renewable energy generation and reducing the state government’s greenhouse gas emissions.
• Go beyond electricity generation. As the state continues to ramp up renewable electricity generation, other sources of carbon emissions will take on greater urgency. For example, shifting the focus of the state’s transportation policies toward public transit—including in higher-density communities on the Eastern Shore—will enable the state to continue reducing its reliance on fossil fuels after opportunities for new renewable electricity generation are exhausted.
• Link public investments to high-quality jobs. Both renewable energy and transportation infrastructure projects should include training and worker protections to ensure that our investments in a sustainable economy create high-quality jobs that are accessible to working people who are currently locked out of opportunities.

Responding to Immediate Impacts

The state should expand and strengthen immediate actions to respond to the climate change impacts that have already arrived, with a focus on protecting communities that face the greatest risks.

• Local governments should emulate state infrastructure standards. The state passed a law in 2018 that strengthened standards state infrastructure projects must meet to ensure they can withstand climate-related flooding.[viii] The law also expanded these standards so that they apply to most local projects that receive at least half their funding from the state. Local governments should adopt similar standards applying to projects that are primarily locally funded.
• Protect communities on the front lines. The impacts of climate change on the Eastern Shore are already serious, and the upheaval will only increase in coming years. These threats are greatest for low-income families and Marylanders of color, who already are more likely to face challenges like physiologically taxing stress, health problems, and unstable housing. State and local policymakers should be intentional about protecting the communities that face the greatest risks.
• Be prepared for the worst. While future climate impacts remain uncertain, the likelihood of communities facing devastating storms or becoming uninhabitable is higher than ever. State and local policymakers should invest in their capacity to respond to emergencies and plan for equitable relocation in the event that this becomes necessary.

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[i] Erika Spanger-Siegfried, Kristina Dahl, Astrid Caldas, Shana Udvardy, Rachel Cleetus, Pamela Worth, and Nicole Hernandez Hammer, “When Rising Seas Hit Home: Hard Choices Ahead for Hundreds of US Coastal Communities,” Union of Concerned Scientists, 2017, https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2017/07/when-rising-seas-hit-home-full-report.pdf County subdivisions are the geographic unit of analysis.

[ii] Len Lazerick, “Rising Seas 2: Former Seafood Capital Crisfield Struggles to Survive,” MarylandReporter, 2013, http://marylandreporter.com/2013/07/29/rising-seas-2-former-seafood-capital-crisfield-struggles-to-survive/

“Flooding in Crisfield Causing Problems with Florence Still on the Way,” WBOC 16, 2018, http://www.wboc.com/story/39071718/flooding-in-crisfield-causing-problems-with-florence-still-on-the-way

[iii] MDCEP analysis of 2012–2016 American Community Survey five-year estimates.

[iv] All facts in this paragraph from “What Climate Change Means for Maryland,” Environmental Protection Agency, 2016, https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-09/documents/climate-change-md.pdf

[v] All facts in this paragraph from Thomas Huelskoetter, “Hurricane Katrina’s Health Care Legacy,” Center for American Progress, 2015, https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/healthcare/reports/2015/08/20/119670/hurricane-katrinas-health-care-legacy/

[vi] “2017 Annual Report,” Maryland Commission on Climate Change, 2017, https://mde.maryland.gov/programs/Air/ClimateChange/MCCC/Documents/MCCC_2017_final.pdf

[vii] See for example the following outline of one scenario that would reduce emissions below current policy, although not to the degree called for under the 2016 law, prepared for the Maryland Commission on Climate Change. https://mde.maryland.gov/programs/Air/ClimateChange/MCCC/Commission/MCCCE3PathwaysPolicyScenario1.pdf

[viii] Senate Bill 1006 of 2018,  http://mgaleg.maryland.gov/webmga/frmMain.aspx?id=sb1006&stab=01&pid=billpage&tab=subject3&ys=2018RS